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iDEA: Drexel E-repository and Archives > Drexel Academic Community > College of Engineering > Department of Civil, Architectural,and Environmental Engineering > Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on HydroScience and Engineering (ICHE 2006) [ISBN: 0977447405] > Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in southern Germany

Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/1860/1398

Title: Non-stationary flood frequency analysis in southern Germany
Authors: He, Yi
Bárdossy, András
Brommundt, Jürgen
Keywords: Stochastic hydrology;Flooding;Hydrology
Issue Date: 11-Sep-2006
Publisher: Michael Piasecki and College of Engineering, Drexel University
Citation: Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Hydroscience and Engineering, Philadelphia, PA, September 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1860/732
Abstract: The paper proposes an implementation of an extended Gumbel distribution and Log-Pearson III (LP3) distribution respectively in a non-stationary extreme discharge study. Three types of time dependant functions are proposed for the statistical distribution parameters. Among the three types, a modified logistic regression function is applied to the Gumbel scale parameter as well as the scale and shape parameters of the LP3. Simulated Annealing is employed as optimization algorithm for parameter estimation towards an exploration of the maximum likelihood. Based on the extended Gumbel and LP3 distributions, significance tests and trend analysis are carried out through bootstrap re-sampling. Discharge data, made up of annual maxima obtained from ten gauging stations located in southern Germany, is used as a case study. The results demonstrate satisfactory non-stationary parameter fitting and flood estimation using both extended distribution functions. The study is an attempt to provide an alternative approach for a more reliable estimation of the design return flood for engineering purposes. Through the extended non-stationary setting, the study gives an impression of the impact of climate/landuse change on flood occurrences and magnitudes. It can also serve as a useful tool for studying climate change scenarios along with climate model simulations.
Description: Paper presented at The Seventh International Conference on HydroScience and Engineering (ICHE) hosted by the College of Engineering at Drexel Univeristy on September 10-13, 2006 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The conference theme was IT in the Field of HydroSciences. It included several mini-symposia that emphasized IT topics in HydroSciences and the yearly meeting of the metadata group of the International Oceanographic Data and Information Exchange organization.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/1860/1398
ISBN: 0977447405
Appears in Collections:Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on HydroScience and Engineering (ICHE 2006) [ISBN: 0977447405]

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