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The Effects of Chronic Wasting Disease on the Pennsylvania Cervid Industry Following Its Discovery
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|Title: ||The Effects of Chronic Wasting Disease on the Pennsylvania Cervid Industry Following Its Discovery|
|Authors: ||Romano, Maria|
|Keywords: ||Public Health|
Chronic Wasting Disease
|Issue Date: ||3-Dec-2012 |
|Abstract: ||Background: Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) affecting deer and Rocky Mountain elk. The disease affects the central nervous system resulting in brain lesions, and once infected, the disease has a 100% case fatality rate. CWD is a major concern for the state of Pennsylvania. The Commonwealth has the second largest domestic cervid industry in the country and is third in the country for the number of captive deer or elk.
Objective: To predict, using captive cervid data, the probable spread and effects of a CWD epidemicwithin the deer industry
Design: Computer simulated epidemic outbreaks of CWD using a deer movement network analysis and traditional gravity model were developed
Setting:The Pennsylvania captive cervid industry, 1997-2011
Data Sources: United States Animal Health Emergency Reporting Diagnostic System Database
Results: 10,000 CWD simulations were 1108 farms, 65% of epidemics were relatively mild, (<14 farms); 48% included index farm only; 14% included one farm in addition to the index farm. Of the severe epidemics, the mean was 620.5±13.44 farms infected, (range 571 – 666). Mean length of the severe epidemics was 159 months (range 121-259 months).
Conclusion: Despite the inherent limitations of the model, this study is the first of its kind to develop a potential spread of CWD using actual captive deer data before the introduction of the disease into a state. As a result, the findings of the study can be used as an instructional tool on the effects of CWD in the event of an outbreak.|
|Appears in Collections:||Health Sciences Theses and Dissertations|
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